(CEP News) - The Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision next week when market participants will learn if the bank will implement additional quantitative easing measures.
Neil Mellor, a currency strategist at the Bank of New York Mellon, said this will be an interesting meeting because the central bank is running out of options.
"At this point you have to question just how much they can realistically do," he said. "I think they will tinker with the announcement but I think that is it. There is also a real risk that the bank will sit back and say they want to see if any of the steps taken will have an impact on the economy," he said.
In the euro zone, market participants will be looking at data relevant to first-quarter economic growth.
IDEAglobal economist Lorenzo Cella will look to euro zone February retail sales figures for confirmation that weak consumption growth will "detract" from GDP in the first quarter of this year.
Economists expect retail sales in the EU to have fallen 0.4% in the month, following January's 0.1% rise. Year-over-year, expectations are for sales levels to have declined 2.5%, following January's -2.2% print.
"Given the weak figure we got from manufacturing goods consumption in France and the disappointing figure from Germany, I think that [sales] could be below consensus, around -0.6% [month-over-month]," Cella said.
"This might not have a lot of market implication, but it will definitely have some implication in terms of growth for Q1 2009," he added.
Economists at Helaba will focus their attention on German industrial production, as well as factory orders for February. The factory orders report from the Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology is due out on Wednesday, while the industrial production report, also from the Economics Ministry, will be released on Thursday.
"We expect further declines, but not as much as we have seen in January," Helaba's Ralf Umlauf said, referring to industrial production and factory orders.
Currently, expectations are for factory orders to have fallen 2.1% in February, following the previous month's stronger-than-expected decline of 8.0%. On an annualized basis, the consensus forecast is for orders to contract 36.5%, following January's 37.9% decline.
Industrial production is also forecast to decline further due to falling demand. The median consensus forecast is for a 3.0% contraction in February, following January's record 7.5% fall. Year-over-year, industrial production is expected to slip 21.7%, outdoing the previous month's 19.3% decrease.
All times in EDT.
Monday:
4:20 EU ECB's Bini Smaghi Speaking in Brussels
4:30 EU Sentix Investor Confidence April Exp: -40.7 Prior:-42.7
5:00 EU Euro-Zone PPI (M/M) February Exp: -0.5% Prior:-0.8%
5:00 EU Euro-Zone PPI (Y/Y) February Exp: -1.5% Prior:-0.5%
5:00 EU Euro-Zone Retail Sales (M/M) February Exp: -0.4% Prior: +0.1%
5:00 EU Euro-Zone Retail Sales (Y/Y) February Exp: -2.5% Prior:-2.2%
April IT Bank of Italy Releases Lending and Bad Debt Data for Feb.
April GB New Car Registrations (Y/Y) March Prior:-21.9%
Tuesday:
4:00 IT Hourly Wages (M/M) February Exp: +0.2% Prior: +0.3%
4:00 IT Hourly Wages (Y/Y) February Exp: +3.3% Prior: +3.8%
4:30 GB Industrial Production (M/M) February Exp: -1.2% Prior:-2.6%
4:30 GB Industrial Production (Y/Y) February Exp: -12.5% Prior:-11.4%
4:30 GB Manufacturing Production (M/M) February Exp: -1.5 % Prior:-2.9%
4:30 GB Manufacturing Production (Y/Y) February Exp: -14.2% Prior:-12.8%
5:00 EU Euro-Zone GDP (Q/Q) (SA) Q4 Final Exp: -1.5% Prior:-1.5%
5:00 EU Euro-Zone GDP (Y/Y) (SA) Q4 Final Exp: -1.3% Prior:-1.3%
5:00 EU Euro-Zone Household Cons (Q/Q) Q4 Final Exp: -0.4% Prior:-0.9%
5:00 EU Euro-Zone Gross Fix Cap (Q/Q) Q4 Final Exp: -3.7% Prior:-2.7%
5:00 EU Euro-Zone Gov't Expend (Q/Q) Q4 Final Exp: +0.1% Prior:-0.6%
19:01 GB Nationwide Consumer Confidence March Exp: +45 Prior: +43
19:01 GB NIESR GDP Estimate March Prior:-1.8%
Wednesday:
2:00 DE Trade Balance February Exp: +7.5B Prior: +8.5B
2:00 DE Current Account (EURO) February Exp: +5.8B Prior: +4.2B
2:00 DE Imports SA (M/M) February Exp: -2.3% Prior:-0.8%
2:00 DE Exports SA (M/M) February Exp: -3.3% Prior:-4.4%
2:45 FR Trade Balance (Euros) February Exp: -4.2B Prior:-4.5B
5:30 GB BRC March Shop Price Index
6:00 DE Factory Orders (M/M) (SA) February Exp: -2.1% Prior:-8.0%
6:00 DE Factory Orders (Y/Y) (NSA) February Exp: -36.5% Prior:-37.9%
Thursday:
2:00 DE Consumer Price Index (M/M) March Final Exp: -0.1% Prior: +0.6%
2:00 DE Consumer Price Index (Y/Y) March Final Exp: +0.5% Prior: +1.0%
2:00 DE CPI - EU Harmonised (M/M) March Final Exp: -0.2% Prior:-0.2%
2:00 DE CPI - EU Harmonised (Y/Y) March Final Exp: +0.4% Prior: +0.4%
2:00 JP Machine Tool Orders (Y/Y) MAR Preliminary Prior:-84.4%
4:00 IT Industrial Production (M/M) (SA) February Exp: -1.5% Prior:-0.2%
4:00 IT Industrial Production (Y/Y) (WDA) February Exp: -17.5% Prior:-16.7%
4:00 IT Industrial Production (Y/Y) (NSA) February Exp: -21.0% Prior:-21.9%
4:00 EU ECB Publishes April Monthly Report
4:30 GB PPI Input NSA (M/M) March Exp: +0.9% Prior: +0.6%
4:30 GB PPI Input NSA (Y/Y) March Exp: -0.7% Prior: +0.5%
4:30 GB PPI Output (M/M) (NSA) March Exp: +0.1% Prior: +0.1%
4:30 GB PPI Output (Y/Y) (NSA) March Exp: +2.1% Prior: +3.1%
4:30 GB PPI Output Core NSA (M/M) March Exp: +0.1% Prior: +0.0%
4:30 GB PPI Output Core NSA (Y/Y) March Exp: +3.1% Prior: +3.7%
4:30 GB Visible Trade Balance February Exp: -£7600 Prior:-£7745
4:30 GB Trade Balance Non euro zone February Exp: -£5500 Prior:-£5704
4:30 GB Total Trade Balance February Exp: -£3450 Prior:-£3585
6:00 DE Industrial Production (M/M) (SA) February Exp: -3.0% Prior:-7.5%
6:00 DE Industrial Production (Y/Y) (NSA WDA) February Exp: -21.7% Prior:-19.3%
7:00 GB Bank of England Announces Interest Rate Decision Exp: 0.5% Prior: 0.5%
12:00 EU ECB's Mersch Speaks t Event in Luxembourg
Friday:
2:45 FR Consumer Price Index (M/M) March Prior: +0.4%
2:45 FR Consumer Price Index (Y/Y) March Exp: +0.4% Prior: +0.9%
2:45 FR CPI - EU Harmonised (M/M) March Exp: +0.3% Prior: +0.4%
2:45 FR CPI - EU Harmonised (Y/Y) March Exp: +0.5% Prior: +1.0%
2:45 FR CPI Ex Tobacco Index March Exp: 117.93 Prior: +117.59
2:45 FR Central Govt. Balance (Euros) February Prior:-8.1B
2:50 FR Industrial Production (M/M) February Exp: -1.0% Prior:-3.1%
2:50 FR Industrial Production (Y/Y) February Exp: -14.8% Prior:-13.8%
2:50 FR Manufacturing Production (M/M) February Exp: -1.2% Prior:-4.1%
2:50 FR Manufacturing Production (Y/Y) February Exp: -17.6% Prior:-16.5%
April 10-17 DE Wholesale Price Index (M/M) March Prior:-0.1%
April 10-17 DE Wholesale price Index (Y/Y) March Prior:-5.7%
