(CEP News) - The key Asia-Pacific events next week will be monetary policy meetings from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Japan, as well as employment results out of Australia.
The Bank of Japan is expected to hold its target rate at 0.10%, but perhaps alter its assessment of the economy and expand measures taken to boost corporate finance, economists say. The bank has begun outright purchases of commercial paper and Japanese government bonds, and most recently upped the amount of JGBs it will buy.
Mark Williams, an economist with Capital Economics, said the BOJ might want to counter the effects of slumping economic growth by increasing its asset purchase program, which he noted "amount[s] to quantitative easing in all but name."
By the middle of the week, the focus shifts to the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy meeting. Economists and the market are at odds over whether the central bank will cut rates, after keeping rates on hold at 3.25% at the last meeting.
Economists expect no change, while the market has priced in an 81% change of a 25 basis point cut.
"By predicting no move until August and a larger total move, we diverge from market pricing on all counts," said economists at Westpac. The central bank has cut rates by a total of 400 basis points since September 2008.
Finally, the other major release in the region will be the Australian unemployment report for March.
Riki Polygenis, an economist with ANZ bank, expects the unemployment rate to climb to 5.5% from 5.2% amid slow economic growth, lower corporate profits and anecdotes of company layoffs. "Australian employment is due for a correction. To date, however, this has not been forthcoming," she said.
The consensus forecast is for a climb in the unemployment rate to 5.4%.
All times in EDT.
Sunday:
19:30 AU AiG Perf of Construction Index March Prior: +29.5
19:30 AU TD Securities Inflation (M/M) March Prior: +0.70%
20:30 AU TD Securities Inflation (Y/Y) March Prior: +3.1%
21:30 AU ANZ Job Advertisements (M/M) March Prior:-10.4%
Bank of Japan to Hold Regular Policy Board Meeting
Monday:
1:00 JP Leading Index CI February Preliminary Exp: +75.3 Prior: +77.2
1:00 JP Coincident Index CI February Preliminary Exp: +86.9 Prior: +89.6
18:00 NZ NZIER Business Opinion Survey Q1 Prior:-64
19:50 JP Official Reserve Assets March Prior: +$1009.4B
Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision Exp: 0.10% Prior: 0.10%
April 06-10 CN Foreign Exchange Reserves March Prior: +$1,946.03
Tuesday:
00:30 AU RBA Interest Rate Decision Exp: 3.25% Prior: 3.25%
2:30 AU Foreign Reserves March Prior: +A$48.3B
19:50 JP Current Account Total February Exp: +¥1034.3B Prior:-¥172.8B
19:50 JP Adjusted Current Account Total February Exp: +¥508.8B Prior: +¥258.0B
19:50 JP Trade Balance - BOP Basis February Exp: +¥125.0B Prior:-¥844.4B
20:30 AU Westpac Consumer Confidence April Prior:-0.2%
21:30 AU Home Loans February Exp: +2.0% Prior: +3.5%
21:30 AU Investment Lending February Prior:-3.8%
21:30 AU Value of Loans (M/M) February Prior: +2.3%
Wednesday:
00:30 JP Bankruptcies (Y/Y) March Prior: +10.4%
1:00 JP BOJ Monthly Report
1:00 JP Eco Watchers Survey: Current March Exp: +20.9 Prior: +19.4
1:00 JP Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook March Prior: +26.5
19:50 JP Machine Orders (M/M) February Exp: -7.0% Prior:-3.2%
19:50 JP Machine Orders (Y/Y) February Exp: -36.7% Prior:-39.5%
19:50 JP Foreign Buying Japan Bonds W/E April 3 Prior:-¥719.8B
19:50 JP Foreign Buying Japan Stocks W/E April 3 Prior:-¥189.7B
19:50 JP Japan Buying Foreign Stocks W/E April 3 Prior: +¥246.4B
19:50 JP Japan Buying Foreign Bonds W/E April 3 Prior: +¥663.1B
21:00 AU Consumer Inflation Expectation April Prior: +2.2%
21:30 AU Employment Change March Exp: -25.0K Prior: +1.8K
21:30 AU Full Time Employment Change March Exp: -10k Prior:-53.8 k
21:30 AU Part Time Employment Change March Exp: -20k Prior: +55.6k
21:30 AU Unemployment Rate March Exp: +5.4% Prior: +5.2%
21:30 AU Participation Rate March Exp: +65.4% Prior: +65.5%
April CN Business Climate Index Q1 Prior: +107
April CN Entrepreneur Confidence Index Q1 Prior: +94.6
April 06-10 CN Foreign Exchange Reserves March Prior: +$1,946.03
Thursday:
19:50 JP Japan Money Stock M3 (Y/Y) March Exp: +1.2% Prior: +1.10%
19:50 JP Japan Money Stock M2 (Y/Y) March Exp: +2.2% Prior: +2.10%
19:50 JP Bank Lending Banks Adjust (Y/Y) March Prior: +4.4%
19:50 JP Bank Lending including Trusts(Y/Y) March Prior: +3.5%
19:50 JP Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust Y March Prior: +3.8%
19:50 JP Bank of Japan to Publish Minutes of March 16-17 Board Meeting
April 06-10 CN Foreign Exchange Reserves March Prior: +$1,946.03
April 09-15 AU RBA Foreign Exchange Transactions March Prior: +229M
April 09-14 NZ Business NZ PMI March Prior: +38.6
April 09-14 NZ REINZ House Sales (Y/Y) March Prior:-17.70%
April 09-13 CN Trade Balance March Exp: +$11.50B Prior: +$4.84B
April 09-13 CN Exports (Y/Y) March Exp: -17.0% Prior:-25.7%
April 09-13 CN Imports (Y/Y) March Exp: -20.00% Prior:-24.1%
April 09-13 CN Money Supply - M0 (Y/Y) March Prior: +8.3%
April 09-13 CN Money Supply - M1 (Y/Y) March Prior: +10.9%
April 09-13 CN Money Supply - M2 (Y/Y) March Exp: +20.5% Prior: +20.5%
Friday:
April 6-10 CN Foreign Exchange Reserves March Prior: +$1,946.03
April 9-15 AU RBA Foreign Exchange Transactions March Prior: +229M
April 9-14 NZ Business NZ PMI March Prior: +38.6
April 9-14 NZ REINZ House Sales (Y/Y) March Prior:-17.7%
April 9-13 CN Trade Balance March Exp: +$11.50B Prior: +$4.84B
April 9-13 CN Exports (Y/Y) March Exp: -17.0% Prior:-25.70%
April 9-13 CN Imports (Y/Y) March Exp: -20.0% Prior:-24.1%
April 9-13 CN Money Supply - M0 (Y/Y) March Prior: +8.3%
April 09-13 CN Money Supply - M1 (Y/Y) March Prior: +10.90%
April 09-13 CN Money Supply - M2 (Y/Y) March Exp: +20.5% Prior: +20.5%
